In recent years, artificial intelligence has emerged as one of the most significant technological revolutions, with humanoid robots serving as the quintessential embodiment of this progressThe increasing penetration of electric vehicles has laid a solid foundation for the quantification of humanoid robotsUnder the advancements in AI technologies and the mature supply chain of electric vehicles, the mass production of humanoid robots is now a tangible reality.

On the evening of November 28, Tesla's Optimus social media channel released an exciting video showcasing the robot's capacity to catch tennis balls bare-handed

The improvements in reaction speed and hand dexterity were particularly noteworthyElon Musk anticipates that by 2025, Tesla's Optimus will enter mass production, potentially generating thousands of units, marking a significant milestone in humanoid roboticsFurthermore, by 2026, large-scale production and sales are expected, with long-term demand predicted to reach an astounding 10 billion units.

As Tesla’s Optimus humanoid robot captures public interest and accelerates development, various domestic and international companies are hastening their investments in the humanoid robotics sector

Tech giants such as Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Samsung, Tencent, OpenAI, and SoftBank have all entered the fray by either investing in start-ups focused on humanoid robotics or developing their own solutionsNotably, companies like Tesla, Norway's 1X Technologies, Agility Robotics from the U.S., Figure, Engineered Arts from the U.K., Sanctuary AI from Canada, PAL Robotics from Spain, Rainbow Robotics from South Korea, Honda, and General Motors are actively producing humanoid robotsChina is also vibrant, with numerous enterprises like Tencent, Xiaomi, DJI Innovations, UBTECH, and Yushu Technology releasing humanoid or bionic robots.

With Tesla leading the charge and backed by advancements in hardware and software, alongside government policies promoting innovation, humanoid robotics has become a focal point of recent investment activity

Data indicates that since September 24, the robotics index has surged by 44.38%, with a significant quarterly increase of 14.63%.

The humanoid robotics sector is poised for explosion, with projected demand reaching upwards of 10 billion units.

From an industry perspective, humanoid robots are still in the early stages of industrialization, with production costs currently steep, generally starting around $100,000. Significant technological advancements are needed in areas such as mechanical design, motion control, and AI to enable effective integration and continued reduction in costs through large-scale production.

Divergent views regarding industry progress and commercialization have resulted in varying predictions for market scale, with estimates for 2030 ranging from hundreds of millions to billions of dollars

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However, there is a consensus that the global market for humanoid robots could reach several hundred billion dollars by that yearAccording to a Tesla official WeChat article published on October 1, 2022, the company expects to deliver millions of humanoid robots within three to five years (around 2025-2028) at a possible price point below $20,000, reflecting a massive potential market scale.

The Chinese government has keenly recognized the opportunities within the humanoid robotics sector and is proactively supporting innovative developments in the industry

National policies frequently address robotics, particularly focusing on this pivotal future sectorGovernment departments are adjusting their strategies and rolling out policies aimed at facilitating and guiding China's humanoid robotics industry towards high-quality growthUnder this policy support, Chinese robotics technology is experiencing significant renewal and industrial growth.

According to a research report presented at the inaugural China Humanoid Robot Industry Conference in April 2024, the market size for humanoid robots in China is projected to reach approximately 2.76 billion yuan in 2024, 10.471 billion yuan by 2026, and 75 billion yuan by 2029, constituting 32.7% of the global total with expectations to hold the leading position

By 2035, the market size is anticipated to reach approximately 300 billion yuan.

Looking ahead, various societal shifts, including an aging population, declining labor force participation, and rising labor costs, are projected to create expansive application landscapes for humanoid robotsAs significant strides are made in general AI, perceptual and power systems, humanoid robots will demonstrate substantial performance enhancements, decreased costs, and faster deploymentThis will allow for the broadening of application scenarios across diverse fields, from manufacturing to healthcare, rescue operations, and services, essentially covering all aspects of human endeavors

Musk predicts a future where the ratio of robots to humans may reach as high as 1:1, or even 2:1, highlighting the potential for demand exceeding 10 billion units.

The low localization rate of the three major humanoid robot systems presents vast opportunities for domestic substitutes in the industry.

From an operational standpoint, humanoid robots comprise three vital systems: the sensing system, control system, and execution system.

According to reports, the humanoid robotics supply chain can be categorized into upstream, midstream, and downstream segments

The upstream consists of raw materials, components, and software platforms, with core components like servo systems, actuators, reducers, control systems, and drivers carrying the highest cost and technological complexityThe midstream encompasses the actual humanoid robot and system integration, while downstream involves the applications in various scenarios.

The upstream sector predominantly involves hardware (components) and software system providersComponents include precision reducers (harmonic reducers, RV reducers, planetary reducers), servo motors (frameless torque motors and hollow cup motors), lead screws, and sensors (visual sensors, force sensors, IMUs). Software entails perception software (including voice, visual, positional, and motion recognition), cognitive software (language processing, deep semantics, knowledge graphs), and decision-making software (path planning and behavior decision-making). Data from Tesla's AI Day suggests that a humanoid robot typically includes linear systems, rotary systems, dexterous hands, perception systems, and batteries.

In terms of specific components, fundamental elements like frameless torque motors, reducers, six-dimensional force sensors, planetary rolling screws, and hollow cup motors constitute over 60% of the overall composition.

From an industry chain perspective, the humanoid robotics domain intersects with various sectors such as industrial robots and electric vehicles, sharing critical components like batteries, chips, sensors, and controllers

This confluence can facilitate a synergistic migration within supply chainsNotably, international humanoid robotics supply chains have achieved maturity and advancements in technical R&D, supply chain completeness, and market promotionKey manufacturers are categorized into Japanese and European/American groups, with the former primarily focusing on motors, sensors, and reducers, while the latter excels in control systems and AI processing.

However, in the past couple of years, domestic manufacturers have gradually caught up in technological capabilities

For instance, in the frameless torque motor market, international leaders include Kollmorgen, Moog, Maxon Motor, BEI Kimco, Woodward, and Shinano KenshiYet domestic firms like Beke and Haozhi Electric demonstrate the potential to gain market share, leveraging their cost advantagesMoreover, leading harmonic reducer manufacturers are also incorporating integration capabilities with frameless torque motors.

Chinese enterprises are relatively sparse in product layoutWhile global leaders in planetary rolling screw technology can achieve G1-G5 precision standards, Chinese manufacturers lack equivalents

Additionally, in terms of maximum dynamic and static loads, Chinese rolling screws fall short compared to their foreign counterpartsNevertheless, major Chinese manufacturers are gradually enhancing their technology, closing the gap between mid and low-end products and international standardsMarket competition features tiered players such as Nanjing Craft, Bote Precision, U-Shi, and Hiwin Technology leading in planetary rolling screw production, while a second tier comprises innovators involved in experimental production such as Best, Inovance Technology, and Dingzhi Technology alongside precision mechanical component manufacturers Wu Zhou XinchunThe status quo is that China’s rolling screw industry accounts for merely 5% of the global market, around 440 million yuan, leaving substantial room for domestic substitution.

From a corporate standpoint, UBTECH Robotics stands out as a leader in humanoid robotics and is one of the few companies worldwide possessing comprehensive stackable technology capabilities

On December 29, 2023, it was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, becoming China's first publicly traded humanoid robot companyIts Walker X humanoid robot, measuring 130cm in height and weighing 63kg, boasts 41 high-performance servo-driven joints, a facial display featuring a 160° panoramic 4.6K HD dual flexible curved screen, a captivating quad-dimensional lighting system, modular design, and a detachable battery.

WalkerX SLAM technology encompasses core functions such as localization and mapping, multimodal perception, path planning, decision control, and wireless positioning

Movement planning and control techniques involve gait planning, stability control, and flexible control (vision detection and object tracking, compliant control, and drag display). Computer vision incorporates capabilities like general object detection, facial recognition, and human interaction technologiesFurthermore, voice interaction technology features speech recognition, natural language processing, and language synthesis, thus enabling capabilities like smooth walking on complex terrain, dynamic limb control for balance and interference resistance, hand-eye coordination tasks, secure human-robot interaction, autonomous path planning, environmental and human perception, and empathetic expressions.

Suteng Juchuang is recognized worldwide as a leader in laser radar and perception solutions

Unlike most laser radar manufacturers that focus solely on hardware, Suteng integrates hardware and software synergiesThe laser radar, utilizing perception solutions that combine vision or other sensors, empowers both vehicles and robots with sensory capabilities that surpass human vision, allowing extensive collaboration opportunities in autonomous driving and roboticsThe third quarter saw approximately 200 laser radar units sold for robotics applications, with the Helios and BPearl series remaining the primary revenue sourcesResilient overseas demand is expected to spur further sales growth in 2025.

Haozhi Electric currently offers a range of products within the robotics sector, including harmonic reducers, frameless torque motors, drivers, control systems, six-dimensional force sensors, brake mechanisms, encoders, electromagnetic quick-change modules, joint modules, terminal executors, and RV reducers — all essential components of robotics.