Human history can essentially be seen as a chronicle of technological innovation, where each leap forward has been closely linked to breakthroughs in science and technologyFrom the days of our primal ancestors hunting for their food, using primitive tools, to our present-day life filled with smart technologies and artificial intelligence, every stride taken by human society has been accompanied by a relentless wave of innovationThe industrial eras, particularly the first three industrial revolutions, illustrate this narrative well: The first transitioned humanity into the age of steam, the second ushered in the electrification era, and the third led us confidently into the digital age, which was defined by information and dataAs we stand at the brink of another transformative period, one may wonder, what does the Fourth Industrial Revolution entail, and what ramifications does it hold for the future?

Rumors and speculations about the next technological phenomena abound in the air

High-temperature superconductors, quantum computing capabilities, increasingly advanced storage solutions, nuclear fusion breakthroughs, and possibly curing diseases like AIDS or cancer could define the frontiers of our next leapThe completion of just a handful of these aspirations could signify the dawn of a revolutionary technological era, positively impacting both energy efficiency and computational power.

There’s always been a significant interest in fresh narratives among capital markets, anticipating the arrival of the "Fourth Industrial Revolution." Recently, excitement surged in the financial world following Google's announcement of its significant quantum computing chip, WillowThis launch has rekindled interest in quantum technology stocks, stirring a frenzy in market participation.

On December 17, the U.S

stock market reflected this enthusiasm spectacularlyQuantum computing stocks soared, with Quantum Computing (QUBT) witnessing a staggering 52% rise, D-Wave Quantum (QBTS.US) climbing by 16%, and Rigetti Computing (RGTI.US) increasing by an impressive 32.03%. Such activity highlights the had ramifications of a tech sector on the brink of potentially transformative advancements.

Following this surge, A-share quantum technology stocks in China matched the momentum, with significant gains among various firmsFor instance, Geer Software (603232.SH) saw its stocks reach their limit upwards, while Guo Shield Quantum (688027.SH) gained 8.57%, and Keda Guochuang (300520.SZ) appreciated by 5.04% in one single daySuch rapid fluctuations demonstrate the market's enthusiasm for quantum technology's potential.

U.S

Bank analysts, however, caution that while applications of quantum computing have only reached their nascent stages, the introduction of the Willow chip has substantially shifted market sentiment toward a more optimistic outlookSenator Maria Cantwell, a Democratic representative from Washington, stated, "Advancements in quantum science and technology will be game-changingFrom breakthroughs in healthcare to clean energy solutions, quantum applications in sensing, computing, and communications will reshape our future."

While it remains uncertain whether quantum computing will indeed reshape our global landscape, one thing is clear: it has substantially redrawn the forecast for relevant tech stocksFor instance, IONQ (IONQ.US), the leading quantum tech stock in the U.S., has seen its price increase nearly fourfold since September 26. Similarly, Guo Shield Quantum, a front-runner in the Chinese market for quantum technologies, has also doubled in stock value since the beginning of September.

These patterns in stock prices reflect a burgeoning optimism regarding this new technology wave, suggesting that certain stocks may present unprecedented opportunities for early investors seeking to capitalize on quantum technology's potential.

The strategic importance of quantum technology is becoming increasingly evident, with expectations that the market could reach hundreds of billions by 2030.

Quantum technology has been in the making for over a century

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The advancements made in modern information technology, computers, communications, and GPS systems have all been closely linked to the application of quantum science.

Quantum technology encompasses several significant domains, including quantum computing, quantum communications, quantum detection, sensing, and measurementAll of these are widely regarded as potentially disruptive innovations across industries.

For example, quantum communications are becoming a viable alternative to traditional encryption technologies, achieving unconditional key security; quantum computing has the potential to exceed the physical limitations of traditional chip architectures, boasting computational abilities hundreds of thousands times faster than conventional systems; and quantum radar, equipped with detection methods that surpass stealth technology, poses a threat to those employing stealth weaponry

Also, quantum sensors provide unparalleled accuracy in measurements under challenging conditions.

Nevertheless, it’s essential to recognize that quantum technology still largely operates at a foundational research level, and we have not yet realized many practical applications.

The substantive impact of Google's Willow chip further emphasizes the promise of this technologyAccording to reports, Willow can accomplish tasks that would take the current fastest computer approximately 10 billion years, all in just five minutes while maintaining exceptional error-correction capabilitiesHigh fault tolerance remains a key challenge in the advancement of quantum technologiesWillow's advent could pave the way for scalable and practical quantum computing solutions.

As the strategic relevance of quantum technologies grows, numerous countries worldwide are increasing investments and prioritizing quantum research and development.

Since the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan in China, the significance of quantum technology has been highlighted in key national policies, appearing over a dozen times in governmental documents

In high-profile reports, including the December 2023 Central Economic Work Conference, the imperative for quantum technology’s advancement as a crucial element of new productivity growth has been reinforced.

Moreover, recent developments indicate that over the past five years, multiple countries have accelerated their strategic planning in the quantum information sectorStatistics reveal that in 2023, six nations unveiled national strategies and investment plans for quantum information, collectively amounting to investments of over $6.7 billion.

With governments increasingly backing quantum technology, investor enthusiasm has soaredAccording to data from ICVTA&K, global financing in quantum technology reached $21.2 billion in 2020, escalating to $29.1 billion in 2021, $33.9 billion in 2022, and $19 billion in 2023, with an emphasis on quantum computing.

Aligning with this trend, China's share of global financing in quantum computing reached 8.1% in 2023. However, it is noticeable that the speed of expansion in the quantum technology market outpaces fundraising rates.

ICVTA&K forecasts indicate that the total market size for the global quantum industry may reach approximately $7.24 billion in 2023, with segments for computing, communications, and measurements projected to be valued at $4.7 billion, $1.08 billion, and $1.46 billion, respectively

By 2030, the total market could soar to around $239.1 billion, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 65%.

A closer examination reveals that the development potential in the quantum technology sector is, without doubt, greater than that of its counterparts.

Experts predict that the end of 2027 or early 2028 might be pivotal times for quantum computing breakthroughsThe quantum computing market alone might reach up to $43 billion by 2028 and could evolve into the main driver of industry growth post-2028, potentially reaching $811.7 billion by 2035.

From these insights, it is evident that if the current trend continues, the next decade may well enter a "golden age" for quantum technologies.

As the industry anticipates a promising future, which Hong Kong stocks are worth following?

Dissecting the three major fields of quantum technology, quantum communication, and quantum measurement reveals varied speeds of development among them.

Currently, quantum key distribution (QKD) has evolved to a stage where it can realize "earth-to-space" wide-area network engineering applications and is seeing a push towards integrated application deployment

Several countries have elevated quantum secure communication networks to the level of national strategy, thereby driving continuous innovation and standardization.

In quantum computing, various prototype systems have confirmed "quantum supremacy" in limited scenarios, though the field remains primarily in foundational research and has yet to solve complex problems of real practical significanceThere is a shared consensus globally to first establish specialized quantum computers before striving for general purpose machines; as such, the related supply chain, market for complete systems, and application explorations are rapidly evolving.

In terms of quantum measurement, multiple products like quantum radar and atomic gravity meters have been developed, which enhance precision in measuring diverse physical quantities under various conditions

This sector is currently moving towards practical applications, with explorations underway across a variety of technological routes.

Overall, while both quantum communication and measurement seem more advanced than quantum computing, in terms of market potential, quantum computing appears to hold the most promise.

Looking at the entire industry chain, the upstream side of quantum computing includes components like lasers and dilution refrigerators; the midstream encompasses prototypes and systems software, while the downstream includes cloud platforms and applications within sectors like finance and artificial intelligenceThe pool of Hong Kong stocks related to quantum computing within this chain is limited, mainly featuring midstream software firms like Baidu (09888), downstream simulators such as Alibaba (09988), and exploratory application companies like China Mobile (00941).

For the quantum communication industry chain, upstream factors include chips, photon sources, single-photon detectors, and quantum random number generators

The midstream comprises core equipment, quantum communication network construction, encrypted network operations, and post-quantum cryptographyDownstream applications primarily encompass security, finance, telecommunications, electric grid systems, and mobile terminalsStocks in Hong Kong related to quantum communications also consist of a few key players, notably, China Mobile (00941), China Telecom (00728), and key financial players.

In addition, the upstream of the quantum measurement industry predominantly features lasers, cryogenic systems, materials, and electronic componentsMidstream includes mature commercial products like atomic clocks and atomic gravimeters, while prototype devices in the engineering development phase are being exploredApplications for quantum measurement can be found across multiple sectors including national defense, aerospace, industrial production, and energy resource exploration

However, as of now, there are no prominent Hong Kong stocks directly associated with this space.

Among these entities, ShiGuang Quantum stands out as a leader in the commercialized quantum information technology sector in ChinaSince its inception in 2009 and its establishment by the University of Science and Technology of China, the company has garnered significant attention from capital markets amid the quantum technology boomIt is noteworthy that China Telecom recently confirmed its acquisition for a substantial stake in ShiGuang Quantum, marking a significant integration of state-owned enterprises into the quantum sector.

To summarize, while quantum technology may not yet have stirred the winds of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, it has undeniably created significant excitement in secondary markets